Welcome to SpinCo
Notes on the debundling of NBCUniversal.
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The Kabletown era of NBC is coming to a close — or, at the very least, entering a much different phase. Back in December 2009, in a development foretold by the seers at 30 Rock, Philadelphia-based telecom giant Comcast announced the deal that would eventually lead to it taking full control of the storied Peacock network and its array of cable channels. On Tuesday, almost exactly 15 years later, Comcast said it was breaking up the empire it helped build, spinning off most of its cable TV holdings into a new stand-alone entity called (at least for now) “SpinCo.” Somewhere, Jack Donaghy wept.
While this week’s developments definitely have an end-of-an-era feel to them, I’m not sure a lot is going to change day-to-day at NBC or its streaming service Peacock, and I don’t think audiences will see that much of a difference — yet. Fact is, decoupling entertainment brands like USA Network, Syfy, E!, and Oxygen from the NBC broadcast network and the Peacock streaming service is just confirming what we’ve known for a few years now: There’s not a lot of value left in the biggest cable brands.
Yes, I know: 50 million-plus homes still pay for cable. But most are doing so for convenience (access to a physical DVR, a clear signal), the ability to get sports and news content, or the few really great cable brands still out there (think Hallmark Channel or TCM or one of the NBCU holdings that isn’t leaving the Peacock’s nest, Bravo). So while the new, smaller NBCU will soon be contributing a lot less to the cable bundle, what will remain — an NBC network lineup packed with the NFL and NBA; a still-vibrant Bravo; and, in theory, giving cable customers access to Peacock — means NBCU will still be able to generate a decent chunk of change from cable carriage fees, even if it won’t be as much as it brings in now. Meanwhile, the company will save a ton of money by not having to pay the costs associated with running so many channels — including the spun-off CNBC and MSNBC, which make money but are not inexpensive.
The decline in value of these once mighty cable assets can partially be chalked up to the impact from the shift to streaming. But a lot of what has happened is the end result of companies like NBCUniversal deciding to hasten cable’s decline by starving their networks of resources over the past five years, funneling the money that used to go to making original programming and clever marketing over to their respective streamers. Instead of giving consumers a reason to keep watching USA Network by letting those networks produce more engaging shows like Suits or the first season of Mr. Robot, NBCU (and other conglomerates) took that money and spent it making endless amounts of Content for Peacock and Paramount+ and, to a lesser degree, Hulu.
There’s part of me that thinks CNN and MSNBC could just end up merging to form a more powerful rival to Fox News.
It’s true that ratings were falling when these companies were still making new shows. But by basically giving up on originals, and getting rid of the execs who used to work on marketing and scheduling these channels, NBCU and others put their cable holdings into hospice care years before they needed to make that transition. These channels aren’t worth holding on to because executives opted to chase after the hot new thing (streaming) rather than doing the work needed to figure out how to keep their longstanding relationships alive. Sure, even with better management, and even with more resources, there’s no universe in which those offloaded cable networks would be thriving right now. I just think the pivot to streaming could’ve been handled in a way that kept the cable ecosystem more vibrant for at least another decade.
As for what happens next, the best thing SpinCo (yes, we’re going to keep calling it that) has going for it are its non-entertainment assets — MSNBC and CNBC. While MSNBC’s ratings post-election have taken a dive, there’s a good chance the numbers will rebound once The Trump Show has its second season premiere in January and progressive viewers emerge from mourning. Likewise, given the chaos Trump’s White House could unleash on the economy, CNBC will continue to be must-see for a niche audience of very wealthy folks. NBC News will of course remain under the control of NBC (this not be spun off), but as of now there are short-term provisions which will let it provide resources to both CNBC and MSNBC. Long term, however, nothing is certain — including whether CNBC and MSNBC will even get to keep their names.
So, Who Wants SpinCo?
Whatever they end up being called, CNBC and MSNBC, plus existing carriage deals in place for the entertainment assets, should provide a solid starting point for SpinCo to recreate itself to reflect the new realities of the business. And that means getting bigger: Comcast execs have been blunt in saying they expect SpinCo will need to partner up with other companies in order to thrive, either by purchasing even more distressed cable networks or doing a joint venture with another company. It’s not hard to see possible matches.
For instance, it wasn’t that long ago that I and others were hearing industry buzz about Warner Bros. Discovery and Comcast forming some sort of joint venture. Nothing happened, and if something ever did, it might actually involve WBD teaming up with NBCU and Peacock. But I could also see WBD boss David Zaslav being open to getting rid of some of his lesser cable channels: Why not let TNT and TBS be part of the same team as USA Network and Syfy? Or maybe WBD would be open to figuring out a way to have CNN provide news content to MSNBC if, at some point, NBC News decides to fully divorce itself from MSNBC. Heck, there’s part of me that thinks CNN and MSNBC could just end up merging to form a more powerful rival to Fox News, though I’ve heard exactly zero talk that anybody at any company is even thinking about it.
Ditto a scenario where the company now known as Paramount Global — in the middle of its own reinvention under new owners Skydance Media — decides to strike a deal with SpinCo offering it the services of its CBS News anchors and reporters for MSNBC and CNBC. After all, if CNN’s Anderson Cooper can appear on 60 Minutes, why can’t someone from the Eye’s D.C. bureau do a live shot from the White House on MSNBC?
Again, this is just me spitballing. When it comes to what happens next with this new cable-centric company, I don’t pretend to know the answers — and apparently Mark Lazarus, the exec in charge of SpinCo, doesn’t either. He told MSNBC staffers Wednesday he’s not sure where the channel will get its news content from going forward, or even whether MSNBC and sister net CNBC will get to keep their current NBC-ish names and logos. These are pretty big details, and it’s telling that they’ve yet to be worked out.The bottom line with SpinCo right now is: Expect the unexpected.
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